Forecast questions, answered

Not necessarily. AI may generate guidance, classify imagery or check data. The organisation issuing forecasts and warnings retains operational responsibility. The useful question is which task the AI performs and how that output is reviewed. See the warning chain guide.

No. Extra time helps only if information is credible, reaches people and supports feasible action. Longer-range detail can also be more uncertain. A timely, understandable update may be more useful than an earlier message that does not identify an actionable situation.

Models can use different observations, starting conditions, methods, update times and geographical scales. Compare the same variable, place and period before judging disagreement. Our storm guide explains why ensembles explore several possible futures.

It refers to a defined outcome in a stated place and time window. Check the product definition and whether its probabilities have been evaluated for reliability. A probability without a clear event definition is easy to misread; it is not a statement that a corresponding fraction of your home will be affected.

Not by itself. A warning may reasonably address a serious possible outcome that does not occur. Evaluation needs many cases and must consider missed events as well as false alarms. It should also examine whether timing, wording and recommended actions were appropriate.

No. It describes conditions that may support ignition and difficult fire behaviour. An ignition source is still needed, and separate systems detect existing fires. Our fire guide separates danger assessment, detection and spread modelling.

Intense rainfall can overwhelm drainage or collect in low areas away from a main river. A river-warning product may cover a different process or location. Read the product's coverage and use current local official information. The flood guide explains the distinction.

No. This is an educational website with no live hazard monitoring. Use the responsible official weather, flood and emergency services for current local information. We do not issue warnings, assess individual addresses or monitor contact messages for emergencies.

Check the task, training data, test region, forecast horizon, comparison baseline, uncertainty and performance on rare events. Also ask whether the system is research or an operational service. Strong average performance does not establish that a particular local decision is supported.